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Aged roof replacement leads

The single biggest predictor of a 'yes' on roof replacement: is the current roof over 15 years old?

Storm damage drives the most lucrative roofing work but it's not the only category. A large segment of residential roof replacement is age-driven: roofs that have reached or exceeded their useful life and need replacement regardless of any specific storm event. The asphalt-shingle industry standard is 20-25 years; in hotter climates, 15-20.

Roffy identifies aged-roof candidates through four signals stacked together: permit records, property tax history, satellite imagery color analysis, and street-view granule loss detection.

How Roffy estimates roof age

No single data source gives an exact age. Roffy stacks four signals:

  1. Permit records. When a roof is replaced, a permit is usually pulled. Public permit databases give us a hard floor on age — if no replacement permit has been pulled since 2002, the roof is at least 24 years old.
  2. Property tax history. Assessment adjustments after major improvements often reveal roof replacement timing even when permits weren't pulled.
  3. Satellite color uniformity. New roofs are color-uniform. Old roofs streak (algae growth, granule loss). Vision models score the streaking pattern as an age proxy.
  4. Street-view granule loss. Visible granule loss in gutters or on the roof surface is detectable from street-view imagery and is one of the strongest end-of-life signals.

When all four signals say 'aged,' the lead's priority score spikes.

Why aged-roof leads close differently from storm leads

Storm leads have urgency built in — the homeowner just experienced the event and is in solution-finding mode. Aged-roof leads have no event-driven urgency, so the conversation is different.

The opening line for an aged-roof lead isn't about a recent storm. It's: 'I'm in the area inspecting roofs that appear to be approaching end of useful life. Yours looks like it might be in that window. Want me to take a quick free look?'

Close rates on aged-roof leads tend to be lower than peak post-storm leads because the homeowner doesn't have a triggering event driving urgency. The trade-off: aged-roof leads have continuous supply (not tied to weather), the lead cost is lower, and the average job size is similar. Track your own close rate by lead type to know where each falls in your business.

Frequently asked questions

Is roof age really that important?

Yes. Insurance carriers, mortgage lenders, and homeowners all use 15-20 years as a decision threshold. Once a roof crosses that age, almost any storm event will produce an insurance claim and almost any inspection will recommend replacement. The conversion mechanics are dramatically different from a 5-year-old roof.

How accurate is roof age estimation?

Highest confidence comes when all four signals agree — permit records say 24 years old, tax history shows no assessment bump, satellite imagery shows streaking, street view shows granule loss. When signals disagree, we weight toward permit records (usually the gold standard) and surface the lead at a lower priority score with the signal conflict noted. The credit guarantee covers materially wrong age estimates on closed-out leads.

Can I get aged-roof leads without storm activity?

Yes. Aged-roof leads are surfaced continuously, not tied to storm events. They're particularly valuable in metros where storm activity is seasonal — they fill in the volume during quieter weather periods.

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